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Chapter 5
Supply Chain Risk Management
D.L. Olson and D. Wu
Global competition, technological change, and continual search for competitive
advantage have motivated risk management in supply chains.
1
Supply chains are
often complex systems of networks, reaching hundreds or thousands of participants
from around the globe in some cases (Wal-Mart or Dell). The term has been used
both at the strategic level (coordination and collaboration) and tactical level (man-
agement of logistics across functions and between businesses).
2
In this sense, risk
management can focus on identification of better ways and means of accomplishing
organizational objectives rather than simply preservation of assets or risk avoid-
ance. Supply chain risk management is interested in coordination and collaboration
of processes and activities across functions within a network of organizations. Tang
provided a framework of risk management perspectives in supply chains.
3
Supply
chains enable manufacturing outsourcing to take advantages of global relative
advantages, as well as increase product variety. There are many risks inherent in
this more open, dynamic system.
Supply Chain Risk Management Process
One view of a supply chain risk management process includes steps for risk identi-
fication, risk assessment, risk avoidance, and risk mitigation.
4
These structures for
handling risk are compatible with Tang’s list given above, but focus on the broader
aspects of the process.
Risk Identification
Risks in supply chains can include operational risks and disruptions. Operational
risks involve inherent uncertainties for supply chain elements such as customer
demand, supply, and cost. Disruption risks come from disasters (natural in the
form of floods, hurricanes, etc.; man-made in the form of terrorist attacks or wars)
and from economic crises (currency reevaluations, strikes, shifting market prices).
D.L. Olson, D. Wu (eds.) New Frontiers in Enterprise Risk Management, 57
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008
58D.L. Olson, D. Wu
Most quantitative analyses and methods are focused on operational risks.
Disruptions are more dramatic, less predictable, and thus are much more difficult
to model. Risk management planning and response for disruption are usually
qualitative.
Risk Assessment
Theoretically, risk has been viewed as applying to those cases where odds are
known, and uncertainty to those cases where odds are not known. Risk is a prefera-
ble basis for decision making, but life often presents decision makers with cases of
uncertainty. The issue is further complicated in that perfectly rational decision mak-
ers may have radically different approaches to risk. Qualitative risk management
depends a great deal on managerial attitude towards risk. Different rational individ-
uals are likely to have different response to risk avoidance, which usually is
inversely related to return, thus leading to a tradeoff decision. Research into cogni-
tive psychology has found that managers are often insensitive to probability esti-
mates of possible outcomes, and tend to ignore possible events that they consider
to be unlikely.
5
Furthermore, managers tend to pay little attention to uncertainty
involved with positive outcomes.
6
They tend to focus on critical performance tar-
gets, which makes their response to risk contingent upon context.
7
Some approaches
to theoretical decision making prefer objective treatment of risk through quantita-
tive scientific measures following normative ideas of how humans should make
decisions. Business involves an untheoretical construct, however, with high levels
of uncertainty (data not available) and consideration of multiple (often conflicting)
factors, making qualitative approaches based upon perceived managerial risk more
appropriate.
Because accurate measures of factors such as probability are often lacking,
robust strategies (more likely to enable effective response under a wide range of
circumstances) are often attractive to risk managers. Strategies are efficient if they
enable a firm to deal with operational risks efficiently regardless of major disrup-
tions. Strategies are resilient if they enable a firm to keep operating despite major
disruptions. Supply chain risk can arise from many sources, including the
following:
8
Political events
●
Product availability
●
Distance from source
●
Industry capacity
●
Demand fluctuation
●
Changes in technology
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Changes in labor markets
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Financial instability
●
Management turnover
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